In 2024, the usury rate rises to 6.29% for twenty-year mortgage loans, an unprecedented threshold in over a decade. Average selling times are increasing, while rental demand reaches historic highs in several metropolitan areas. The credit refusal rate surpasses 20%, reversing the dynamics of access to property.
This market configuration alters the hierarchy of attractive cities and disrupts buying or selling strategies. Some regions see their prices decline by more than 5% over twelve months, while others experience unexpected stability despite an unfavorable economic context.
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What is the current state of the real estate market in 2024?
The landscape of the French real estate market in 2024 is set to be significantly more turbulent than it has been in recent years. The number of real estate transactions is dwindling as interest rates rise and the housing crisis spreads across the territory. Paris, long a symbol of endless price increases, now sees its average price per m² drop below 10,000 euros, a shift that seemed unthinkable not long ago.
The European Central Bank has disrupted the mechanics of the sector by raising its key rates. As a result, access to mortgage credit is tightening, and households’ borrowing capacity is shrinking. Average rates for purchasing exceed 4%, slowing the pace and redistributing the balance of power between sellers and buyers.
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On the ground, the supply of housing is tightening. Selling times are stretching, rental demand is intensifying, especially in major metropolitan areas and suburban rings. Quality properties are still finding buyers, but energy-intensive homes, often poorly rated on energy labels, linger longer in agency windows without generating enthusiasm.
To track the evolution of the real estate market and understand the dynamics, actu-immobilier.com examines the figures, dissects the situation, and sheds light on movements, far from any political correctness. The year begins under the sign of caution, with each territory playing its own game with its own springs and resistances.
What major developments influence the decision to buy or sell this year?
In 2024, deciding to buy or sell a property requires integrating several simultaneous parameters. At the top of the list: the mortgage rate. Since the end of 2022, the rise in rates has reshuffled the cards of borrowing capacity. What seemed accessible two years ago is significantly less so today. Banks are demanding more down payment and closing the door on many first-time buyers.
Real estate agents observe this daily: buyers are being more cautious and negotiating more. According to the most recent real estate market report, the time to sell a property is lengthening. Owners of energy-intensive or outlying homes often have to lower their ambitions, with negotiation becoming the new rule of the game.
On the sellers’ side, strategies are adjusting. Many choose to wait, betting on a future calm in interest rates or an improvement in purchasing power. The result: fewer properties for sale, which tightens certain segments, starting with well-located family apartments in the city.
Uncertainties related to mortgage credit aid programs or purchases weigh on the morale of candidates. Government choices, economic volatility, and changing buyer expectations blur the clarity of the market. To avoid navigating blindly, it is better to rely on recent data, seek the advice of professionals, and adjust strategies as the market evolves.
Key figures, analyses, and forecasts: what experts anticipate for the future
Specialists are scrutinizing the French real estate market. The beginning of the year confirms a trend: a decline in the volume of transactions, corrections in real estate prices in many major cities. Nearly 900,000 sales are expected in 2024, far from the peak observed in 2021-2022.
The decline in real estate prices is concentrated in high-pressure areas, primarily Paris, where the price per m² drops by 4 to 5% in a year. Peripheral houses, on the other hand, show some resistance. Another closely watched indicator is the evolution of mortgage rates. The average rate stands around 4%, after nearing 4.3% in the fall. Signals from the European Central Bank suggest a slight easing of key rates. Some voices anticipate stabilization, while others predict a moderate decrease in mortgage rates by the end of the year, without dreaming of a return to pre-crisis conditions.
Here are some benchmarks to situate yourself:
- Real estate transactions expected: 900,000 in 2024
- Price per m² in Paris: decline around 4 to 5%
- Average borrowing rate: approximately 4%
The zero-interest loan (PTZ) remains a topic of debate. Its recentralization limits its effect on market recovery. Experts agree: the French real estate market is heading towards a cycle of caution, where negotiation intensifies and each territory imposes its own logic. Staying attentive, informing oneself, and accepting the unexpected: this is undoubtedly the true rhythm of 2024.